Can The Dominant NFL embrace Rugby over the Next 10 years ?
Can Louis Rees Zammit reinforce the credibility of rugby athletes within the ultimate pro sport?
If you know anything about American football, whether at High School, NCAA or NFL level, Americans are united in the belief that it is the best team sport in the world with the finest, quickest, strongest, competitive athletes on the planet. And just maybe this example of American exceptionalism is not wrong. Soccer is considered a women’s game in the USA or for Latino immigrants from South America. The American sports of American football, baseball, basketball and ice hockey dominate the sports media landscape. Soccer has a small foothold, but other British and European sports like rugby and cricket barely exist. The dominant sport for most of the year, in-season and out is the National Football League, a 32 franchise competition that culminates after a 17 league game eliminator that determines seedings in knock-out playoffs culminating in the Superbowl in early February. Games are available live on Thursday night, Sundays across three kick-off slots and Monday night. The current TV/ streaming contract is worth $ 111 billion from 2021 to 2032. Media partners, as they like to be known as include NBC, Fox, ABC, ESPN, NFL Network, as well as a multitude of overseas broadcasters including in the UK our own SKY Sports and ITV.
The riches generated by America’s dominant collision sport is envied by the world of rugby. The NFL had its roots in the Ivy League Colleges, notably Harvard and Yale, who in 1875 played a game under rugby style rules. Theses rules proved popular with players of other universities, notably Princeton, Colombia and Rutgers who adopted the rugby rules which were based on the Rugby Football Union’s code from England. One important difference was the replacement of a kicked goal with a touchdown as the primary means of scoring. Walter Camp, known as the “ father of American football “ was the captain and coach of Yale College. He initiated several changes to these original rugby rules during the 1880s that stamped a very American influence on the game. These rules continue to evolve to this day and are a key part of the NFL’s success in improving both the safety and entertainment aspects of American football.
How did these two sports, rugby union football and American football played on two separate continents enjoy such differing fortunes over the past 150 years? The answer is simple. Professionalism and preservation of old traditions. Rugby union stayed strictly amateur until 1995. The USA, cradle of modern capitalism, in the 1920s nurtured American Football, already a hugely popular amateur college sport to turn to professionalism influenced by ex college players who saw an opportunity to make a living from the sport, copying the thriving professional baseball model.
On 20th August 1920 at a Hupmobile car dealership in Canton, Ohio the National Football League, originally known as the American Professional Football Conference was created. Only two of the original charter members survive today, the Arizona Cardinals ( previously the Chicago Cardinals ) and the Chicago Bears ( formed as the Decatur Staley’s). The Green Bay Packers, created in 1919 is the only team never to change locations, and joined the League in 1921. The New York Giants joined in 1925 followed by the Portsmouth Spartans in 1930 who relocated to Detroit in 1934 to become the Lions (can they win their first Superbowl this season?). Original teams from Cleveland, Buffalo and Columbus(Ohio) have disappeared over the years to be replaced by new replacement franchises in those cities and add Cincinatti to replace Columbus in Ohio, an influential State in the overall development of American football at all levels.
As a result of the growth in the popularity of American football over the past 100 years, a sport which enjoyed the fruits of an unexpected coincidence in 1958, when the NFL Championship game saw the Baltimore Colts defeat the New York Giants at Yankee Stadium 23-17 in what became known as “the Greatest Game Ever Played”. But the key to its popularity lay in the stop/start nature of the rules which allowed stoppages in play between downs, turnovers, changes in possession and scores. The stoppage dovetailed perfectly with commercial television whereby adverts could be broadcast to vast, common audiences across the USA continent coast to coast. This triggered an ever increasing flow of cash and investment over the past 63 years that in 2021 culminated in the current $ 111 billion TV/media rights deal. The TV audience statistics are staggering; in the first half of the 2024 season the average viewership of all NFL games is 18.6 million. This up from 14.9 million in 2017. In 2024, Sunday Night Football broadcast by NBC is attracting 27 million viewers. In 2023 the most watched teams were Dallas Cowboys, known as ‘America’s team’ (25m), Kansas City, winner of the past three out of four Superbowls, with a player Travis Kelce who is dating Taylor Swift (23m), Philadephia Eagles, who look like serious Superbowl contenders (23.6m), Washington Commanders(25.1m), Buffalo Bills(19.7m), Green Bay Packers(19.4m). In 2023, NFL individual games were 93 out of 100 of the most watched television programmes of any genre.
Last week the NFL announced a record average viewership of 34.2 million across the three games broadcast on Thanksgiving day. The Detroit v Chicago Bears game averaged 37.5 million, an increase of 11% over the 2023 Detroit Thanksgiving game against the Green Bay Packers.
Valuations of NFL franchises have exploded in recent years. With the sole exception of the Green Bay Packers, which is a public company, the 31 other franchises are owned by a single individual or family. Today the average value of an NFL franchise is $ 6.5 billion;
Cost/Year bought. Current Value
$ billion. $ billion
Denver Broncos. 4.6. 2022. 6.2
Carolina Panthers. 2.2. 2018. 5.9
Buffalo Bills. 1.4. 2014. 5.3
Los Angeles Rams. 0.75. 2010. 8.0
Source: CNBC
This escalation in values is the result of the leagues’s success in growing viewership of the game across all demographics in America and overseas. The current TV deals with Comcast, Disney, Paramount and Fox are worth $9.3 billion per year, an increase of 85% on the previous contracts. If only our rugby administrators were competent enough to increase the value of British rugby media deals.
Add in the streaming deals with YouTube for NFL Sunday Ticket, Amazon Prime for Thursday Night Football and Netflix Christmas Special, and the NFL is guaranteed an average of $12.4 billion per year through 2032 albeit with a break clause in after the 2028/2029 season. This opt-out decision which in four years time will probably be taken will be a tectonic event that could shake out the balance of power in sports media. Will streaming companies like Apple+, Prime, Google, YouTube or Netflix usurp the traditional networks like Fox, Paramount Global CBS and Disney. There is also the likelihood of specific hedge funds emerging to bid for a package of media rights similar to Liberty in F1 or CVC in rugby.
Former CBS Sports President Neal Pilson speculated, “ There will be companies that don’t exist today that will emerge to create new competitive bidders…..the NFL is its own marketplace. The programming is the honey. It’s all driven by the popularity of the NFL”.
These viewership numbers are of course unique to such a large, wealthy, populous country as the USA. They demonstrate the size of a sports hungry consumer appetite, especially if you add in baseball, basketball and ice hockey. The newcomer is the MLS which has enjoyed steady growth and expansion over the past twenty years. In comparison the Six Nations rugby tv contract deal is a paltry £ 90 million per year. This is ending in 2025. The coming tournament that kicks off in Paris on 31st January is likely to be the last on free to air channels (BBC and ITV ) with Six Nations management led by CEO, Tom Harrison currently preparing an open tender process. Let all British rugby fans hope that his background with IMG Media, ESPN STAR Sports and CEO of the England and Wales Cricket Board provide him with the experience to challenge the current broadcasting cartel that keeps the value of elite rugby content at such a low level. The real challenge for the member unions of the Six Nations is to market and popularise rugby in a far more aggressive and positive manner, particularly to young people and teenagers. The use of digital platforms is essential, as is a continued long term presence on free to air television. We need more rugby content on Tik Tok.
The wise guys’ money is on TNT Sports, backed by Warner Bros to win the bidding process using a hybrid model used already via TNT’s partnership with the BBC for the FA Cup matches.
Meanwhile from its ivory tower in Dublin, World Rugby is greedily looking at the riches it feverishly imagines lie ahead in the USA. In May 2022 World Rugby announced that the USA will host the 2031 Rugby World Cup for the first time as part of a long term growth plan for American rugby and fans worldwide…Really ??? The naivety and bumptious ambitions of the members of the World Rugby Council and its executive sports administrators know no bounds. This announcement proceeded to quote Bill Beaumont, Chairman of World Rugby and The CEO, Alan Gilpin ( who? The man who is invisible in his leadership…..rumour has it he does throw a shadow ), both gushed the usual mush of consultancy talk babble. Phrases like, “develop robust strategic objectives”, “build efficiencies for delivery”, “new partnership approach”, etc,etc.
The reality is that this insane decision to go to the USA in the Autumn of 2031 is a shameless cash grab. Advised by large sports media groups and unknown advertising agencies, World Rugby is as corrupt and secretive about its business dealings as previous global sports organisations like FIFA, EUFA and the IOC. World Rugby’s administrators believe that in America there is a pot of gold at the end of the Rainbow. I believe this is delusional. The sports market is huge, but not for a little understood sport like rugby. This decision will end in abject failure, both financially and in the attempt to grow rugby in a country dominated by American sports which its media fiercely defend. There is an awareness of rugby as a quirky, quidditch type game with lots of tackling and no pads which give all rugby players the aura of being tough guys. That’s it. There’ll be little interest or growth outside the 120,000 players currently registered with USA Rugby.
There are other factors that provide evidence to my thesis that this 2031 venture is doomed. Examine the recent and current trend of rugby athletes attempting to transition to the NFL via their International Pathway programme. Some of rugby union’s most talented young players are choosing to turn their backs on rugby. Louis Rees-Zammit, contracted to Kansas City Chiefs and now the Jacksonville Jaguars, Travis Clayton with Buffalo Bills and the successful Aussie, Jovelan Mailata, who in April this year signed a three year $66 million contact extension of which $48m is guaranteed. These are the current examples to follow, but others like Christian Wade($175k), Alex Gray($629k), Lawrence Okoye($496k) had fleeting careers albeit enjoying far higher earnings than is possible in rugby. The most recent success is the Scottish punter Jamie Gillan who signed a $ 4 million contract with the Giants for the 2023/24 season.
This talent will increase over coming years as other young, motivated, athletic, talented rugby athletes chase the riches that Mailata has earned. Any 16 year old rugby athlete with ambition to make a living from a professional collision sport has to consider going to an American university or college to play American football. This is the best pathway to get into the NFL. The compensation packages on offer through playing in the NFL are in stark contrast to the sport of rugby union. Such million dollar sums are not attainable in rugby, not to Antoine Dupont, Siya Kolisi or the Barrett brothers.
What World Rugby have failed to understand is that to grow interest in rugby in the USA, elite rugby players with global star quality have to follow the David Beckham model of playing in the USA for an American team. Interest in the MLS increased sharply with his move to play for LA Galaxy in Los Angeles. But there are few global stars amongst rugby’s elite. Add to this a better funded and more widely marketed 10 year plan to boost the Major League Rugby (MLR), a professional league created in 2018. Next year there will be eleven teams playing in a salary capped league from late February to early July. Teams are based in Seattle, Los Angeles, San Diego, Utah, Houston, New Orleans, Chicago, Washington DC, New England, Carolina and Miami.
Several teams have withdrawn from the MLR. One bone of contention amongst clubs was the league decision to expand the number of overseas players on a roster from 3 to 5. Recalcitrant clubs argued that too many foreigners delayed the opportunities to play and gain experience for young players targeting 2031 as their career objective. This need to develop elite players capable of playing competitive rugby against both tier 1 and tier 2 countries at international level was a major factor in the establishment of the MLR. To penetrative the American sports consciousness America needs to win the world cup in 2031. American sports fans only recognise winners in their sports culture. Nobody remembers who the runner up was in any Superbowl or World Series. So again, why award the world cup to the USA to host?
There are 121,000 registered players in the US. The popularity of rugby was given a major boost when it was featured in the fourth season of “Friends”in the episode, ‘ The One With All the Rugby’ broadcast on February 26 1998. My brother Mark played the rugby player in the episode during his acting career in Hollywood in the late 1990s. Mark played for Cambridge University, Swansea, Harlequins, Rosslyn Park and Nice. He also played for Wales at the first Rugby World Cup Sevens tournament in Scotland in 1993.
There is a general awareness of rugby within the United States. At least three US Presidents played rugby. Legend has it that Bill Clinton became a fan of the game whilst at Oxford University in England as a Rhodes scholar and played for his college in the second row. George Bush was a keen player at high school and was on Yale’s 1st XV. In 1968 he was part of their win over Harvard playing full back. John F Kennedy played for the Harvard team along with his brother Joseph. Teddy Kennedy, ex Speaker of the House of Representatives also played for Harvard.
I can vouch that there is a small, dedicated group of amateur rugby players of all sexes across the USA. They are attracted to the sport by its ethics, spirit and communal brother and sisterhood. I personally played in Chicago, Madison and Milwaukee on a tour with Swansea University in 1980. We stayed with our opposition teams who took us into their homes and gave me a taste of life in the USA. The hospitality was unbelievable, especially in Madison. I am still in touch after all these years with Robert Buchanan, who is Chairman of Madison rugby club which is thriving. Robert publishes a Wisconsin Rugby newsletter via email. Anyone interested in Wisconsin or Madison rugby can email:robert.buchanan@wisconsinrugbysportscomplex.com.
During our time in Madison, aka ‘mad, mad city’ he would drive us in the back of his flatback pick up truck to visit Pitcher’s Pub for the green swampy cocktails served in a jam jar and other not so salubrious joints in the heart of that University town.
Years later, living in Malibu I would attend matches to watch Santa Monica RFC and Belmont Shore, a real power house on the West coast based near Newport Beach. My nephew, Billy Maggs achieved All American status for rugby ( as did my daughter Siwan in swimming whilst at Bolles School in Jacksonville where she was a contemporary of the Jacksonville Jaguars current quarterback, Mac Jones). Billy played for the under 20 USA Eagles team whilst at Cal Berkeley coached by the legendary Jack Clark. I went on several occasions to watch Billy play for his high school Delmar Mustangs team, and later whenever he came to Los Angeles to play for Cal against UCLA which has a wonderful picturesque playing field in the heart of the campus.
USA Rugby has barely survived in recent years thanks to the handouts from World Rugby who gave them $3.2 million in 2018 to hold the World Cup Sevens in San Francisco, a tournament that registered zero on the American sports fans awareness scale. Again in june 2020, World Rugby saved USA Rugby from bankruptcy. So why award the only tournament of any note run by World Rugby to the USA?
The USA is perceived to be the golden nugget all sports want to prospect and crack open. “It’s the world’s biggest sports market” said Bill Beaumont, wide- eyed and labrador-like. Ignoring the barriers to entry outlined in these Musings the World Rugby Council slavishly and naively appointed USA as hosts of the 2031 world cup despite Alan Gilpin acknowledging that the US will need “a lot of hand holding”. The plan apparently is to play the games outside the NFL season which starts on the first Thursday after Labor Day in early September. Warm up NFL friendlies are played in August. This shift from the RWC traditional September/October is obligatory if the tournament is to gain any traction with American sports media channels, digital platforms and podcasts. June to August is now rumoured to be the likely calendar in order to have access to the magnificent NFL Stadiums. These dates bring issues around the heat temperatures and player welfare considerations.
In July earlier this year Alex Lowe wrote in The Times, “ There are more concerns about World Rugby’s decision to stage the 2031 World Cup in the USA. Conversations have taken place about the prospects of England and Ireland stepping up to take over as hosts”. Japan are also in the mix.
Taking the tournament to the USA is no longer viewed as the lucrative opportunity so naively expressed by Bill Beaumont who is shortly retiring from his post. Major US sponsors are yet to be convinced of the attractiveness of the spectacle of rugby union with its repetitive kicking, sideways phase play, impossible to defend driving line-outs from 5m and lack of global superstar names outside Dupont, Kalisi and Du Toit. At present it is the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles that focuses the attention of the global sponsors Coca Cola, Google, Amazon, Ford, etc. Not the 2031 RWC across the USA.
I hope I’m wrong but the reality of rugby taking off as a mass audience sport in the USA is a shimmering mirage of a cactus in an Arizona desert.
Christopher Thomas
Langland Bay